It’s not much today, but it is yet another shot at severe weather on the Southern High Plains of NE New Mexico today. Yesterday’s action didn’t disappoint either in Kansas and Colorado, but the ingredients are falling off a bit for today. Still, there should be plenty there for some severe weather.
There is a slight risk for much of NE New Mexico today, with damaging winds and large hail the highlighted threats today.
According to high-resolution models, storms should begin forming in the early afternoon over the mountains of NE New Mexico. It should take a bit for these to organize and move off of the mountains though.
Probably by the late afternoon/early evening, storms should finally push off of the mountains and should organize into a cluster/line with some supercells possible as wind shear strengthens into the evening.
In time, with the onset of cooling, storms should diminish everywhere except along a line that should take shape. Still, even with that line, storms should weaken into the overnight hours relatively quickly.
The NAM is probably more realistic overall with the likely environment today, with moderate instability overlayed with a strongly curving hodograph aloft. This is the type of hodograph that yields some pretty spectacular structure sometimes. The small 0-1km segment with the more elongated 1-6km also suggests some potential for big hail given the moderate instability.
The Bottom Line
Today isn’t an all-timer of a chase on the surface, but for the enterprising storm chaser (aka me today), this could be a day that yields a very nice looking supercell towards sunset on the SW end of storm development. I’ll be heading out today for a destination of Las Vegas to Wagon Mound, NM.
