There are going to be a lot of storms around this afternoon and evening, and a couple will likely organize into supercells with the threat of very large hail and perhaps even a tornado this evening. The tornado risk is very low, but it is not zero.
The risk area today spans across portions of the region that I like to call the transition zone between the high and low plains. Storms will form almost everywhere it seems, and any that can mature and dominate their local environment will possibly become supercells.
The Bottom Line
We’re going to have a lot of storms and some damaging winds/large hail are almost certainties today. Storm coverage may be too high to see widespread major severe weather. However, one or two storms are likely to evolve into supercells.
- The window for very large hail will exist from late afternoon into the early evening.
- The tornado window will be a lot narrower, likely in the 6-8 p.m. time frame. That little time-frame will be the only real time when cloud bases lower and the surface remains unstable with the strongest wind shear. It’ll be really hard to get tornadoes outside of that.
- The severe weather threat should diminish with time tonight, as instability wanes and storms generally weaken below severe levels.