Rapid thunderstorm development, including one or two intensifying supercells, is likely between 2-4 PM CDT. Expect large hail (over 2 inches), strong gusts, and possible tornadoes.

  • Current Conditions: Rapid destabilization and weakening inhibition due to increasing low-level moisture and warm temperatures.
    • Trigger: Weak perturbations and strong deep-layer lift are supporting high-based convective development.
    • Expected Development: As temperatures reach the mid-80s and dew points rise into the 60s, convective temperatures will be met. This will align with deep-layer lift, leading to potential supercell development.
    •  Risks: Large hail, strong surface gusts, and potential tornadoes as storms mature and move southeast.