The first wave of energy continues to move across the region this morning after it apparently spawned a couple of QLCS tornadoes across Central Oklahoma. The second wave of energy associated with the main upper system will eject out this afternoon, concentrated across Texas, with additional severe weather risks apparent.
You can see the two waves apparent on the 500mb chart here. The main batch of energy is entering the western 1/2 of Texas in this image during the mid-afternoon.
As of 1 p.m. CT, there is lots of clearing across western North and Central Texas, which is allowing for instability to build in the wake of the departing wave.
Instability looks to build through the day, with healthy instability (1000-1500 MLCAPE) possible by afternoon. This surface-based CAPE and hodograph map shows a favorable instability/shear parameter space for severe weather.
Soundings nearer the surface low in western North Texas show lots of cape with a fairly low EL, which might indicate low topped storms. The fat instability profile mixed with strong low-level instability is something we’ll have to watch for even a low tornado potential this afternoon.
Simulated radar shows storms beginning to form across Texas by 4 p.m. this afternoon (perhaps earlier from what I’m seeing on visible satellite). Hail is all but guaranteed with the stronger cores, and there will be a low-ish tornado threat with any sustained supercells.
Storm modes will become more crowded with time, from north to south. Any storms that can remain isolated and away from crowded modes will pose a threat of severe weather with hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes possible into the evening hours.
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