As expected, the summer season has continued without much of a break, with a couple of shots at supercells and tornadoes each week across the Southern/Central High Plains. Today’s event will be no different, with storms forming off of the higher terrain and marching south and east.

Storms should form in the mid-late afternoon hours over the Sanger De Cristos and Raton Mesa. Given the NW flow aloft, they will dive SE and S through the day.
Rich low-level moisture, with dews in the 60s, will be feeding the storms today. This is creating an environment with moderate instability this afternoon.
By evening, a dominant supercell or two should emerge. These will be the most severe cells, capable of all hazards. This includes giant hail, very damaging winds, and a tornado.

A look at the environment by evening shows that as storms move south, they may encounter slightly drier air…may. Storms will likely be somewhat high-based throughout their life-cycle and the tornado risk will ultimately come down to what the near storm environment is offering in terms of moisture quality.

The Bottom Line

It is yet another day for severe weather on the Plains. Expect supercells to take shape pretty quick, with giant hail becoming possible pretty early on in their evolution. With time, the tornado risk may ramp up if a storm can maintain a favorably moist inflow fetch.

The severe weather risk will peak from 4-9 p.m. and will then wane with the loss of daytime heating.