Expect storms to form in the early-mid afternoon across Northeast Colorado and Northwest Kansas. These storms will move north in the evening with a large hail and enhanced tornado potential.
Storm Timing: Storms will begin forming as soon as 1 p.m. CT.
Threats: Large hail and at least some tornado potential. Damaging winds will become more of a threat with time.
Forecast Discussion
There will be a risk of a few severe storms today across Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas, with the main tornado risk centered on Northeast Colorado and Northwest Kansas. These storms will pose a tornado threat from 3 p.m. CT to 8 p.m. CT or so. I’m not terribly impressed with today overall, but I think a few tornadoes remain possible across this region.
Dewpoints will reach the upper 50s to low 60s in this region, becoming at least somewhat supportive of severe storms.
The big question in my mind are the low clouds across Northeast Colorado. Most models form storms on the south end of these but move the storms up over stable air. I think where Kansas/Colorado/Nebraska meet is probably the place to be for the maximum tornado potential today.
The Bottom Line: I think a few tornadoes are possible today, but I would be cheating east for the highest potential through the day. Regardless big hail will be possible, including across the Denver metro area.
