Sunday will likely be a busy day of severe weather, with storms expected across a wide swath of area, but the tornado risk for this day will likely depend on what happens in the conditional risk area.

  • Primary Risk Area: Storms will almost certainly form here in the afternoon but with high cloud bases contributing to strong DCAPE values, these cells will likely grow upscale into a linear complex. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with large hail also possible. Early on in storm evolution, a low tornado risk will be present.
  • Secondary Risk Area: A weak line of storms with damaging winds will be possible from NW Kansas into the Dakotas.
  • Conditional Risk Area: The dryline across Western Oklahoma into far south Kansas is the big question mark. Models are all over the place on how likely a storm off of the dryline will be. The odds seem even on if we have a storm or a blue sky sunset. If a robust supercell can get going, very large hail and a tornado or two will be possible, though the tornado window will be relatively small.