Severe weather is possible this Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area in a slight risk. The primary threats will be large hail and potentially a few tornadoes. Damaging winds will become more possible in the evening as a line takes shape.

Meteorological Breakdown

A storm system diving out of the Southwest will kick off storm development later in the afternoon along a dryline boundary stretching across the Plains. While the airmass won’t be overly rich in moisture, very cold air in the middle layers of the atmosphere will help make the environment unstable enough for strong to severe storms.

Storms that form are likely to quickly become supercells, the type of storm capable of the largest hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is a bit uncertain due to limited moisture, but there’s a chance for a few tornadoes Sunday evening, especially as a strong jet stream kicks in overhead. The timing for tornadoes is likely around the sunset hours with any dominant supercells. As surface temps cool slightly and wind shear picks up, storm bases should lower with dominant supercells and allow for the possibility of a few tornadoes. In particular, we’re watching S. Kansas and N. Oklahoma for this potential as of right now.

Additional Notes

Expect storms to organize into a line or cluster during the evening, shifting eastward into the night. While weakening somewhat, these storms will still carry a risk of damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail.