A potentially serious threat of severe weather will evolve tomorrow across portions of the south, roughly from Northern Louisiana into Western Mississippi.

What: Risk of severe storms with strong tornadoes.

Where: Portions of the South, most especially northern Louisiana and Western Mississippi. 

When: Tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours.

Discussion: As an upper storm system moves into the region from the west, instability, and wind shear will increase to create an environment potentially supportive of tornadic supercells. Right now, the environment looks on a razor’s edge, with instability just enough to be favorable for severe storms. Additionally, storm mode will be a potential inhibitor of the most significant tornado potential, as storms will be pretty crowded in an otherwise low-instability environment.

Still, the wind shear is quite significantly strong on model soundings. Any storm that can maintain clean inflow and become more dominant will be capable of producing tornadoes, with a significant tornado possible.