The busy week of severe weather continues today with what looks to be a near certain widespread severe weather event across North Texas into Southern Oklahoma. A rich low-level airmass along with just enough wind shear will combine to create an environment ripe for powerful storms this afternoon and evening. Let’s dive in.

Screenshot 2023 05 06 at 8 40 47 AMRich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will be surging north and west today with slightly backed flow across North Texas into Southern Oklahoma today.

Screenshot 2023 05 06 at 8 41 56 AMOn top of that, modest but just enough 500mb flow given the high instability will be in place with 25-30kt of flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

Screenshot 2023 05 06 at 8 41 39 AM

As that is ongoing, the low-level jet will strengthen to 25-30kt in the early evening.

Screenshot 2023 05 06 at 8 49 03 AM

Model soundings from today feature effective shear values of 35-40kt with 0-1km SRH generally near 100. The 0-3km CAPE values are modest but come in near 50 j/kg. These are all right on the edge where I’d think tornadoes are plausible. If a supercell turns right like yesterday, they become even more so.

Screenshot 2023 05 06 at 8 50 09 AM

Models form a lot of storms once again. These storms form along a dryline from the Red River back to near Ft. Stockton in West Texas. Like yesterday, models are trying to kill storms early which probably won’t happen. I suspect a pretty robust line will fully take shape by sunset across Texas and march East and South.

The Bottom Line

I’m expecting lots of severe weather today, with storms forming 2-4 p.m. along the dryline.

  • The main threats today will be giant hail (baseball size or larger) and damaging winds.
  • The tornado threat is not zero. I would classify it as very low, but it is clearly in the ‘can’t rule it out’ area of the spectrum.
  • It is very possible storms might sculpt up a bit in the evening, maybe with a pronounced shelf cloud at the very least.
  • I suspect we’ll see some damaging wind reports that are on the higher end (70-80mph+) this evening.

It’s going to be a busy day. As always, subscribe to us on YouTube. We’ll be live from the field in the mid-late Afternoon.