It’s going to be a day where storms form all at once across a broad region characterized by an environment favorable for severe weather. But the instant initiation of storms along multiple boundaries will likely lead to clustered/linear storm modes which will limit what would otherwise be a favorable environment for a couple/few tornadoes.

The view from Satsquatch this morning shows extensive low clouds over the Texas Panhandle down to wet Texas with a moist environment in place. Storms are already taking shape along the NM/TX border thanks to an approaching upper wave.
Models are in general agreement with a crowded form mode north, with multiple cell interactions likely. A tornado or two is possible with this activity, but very large hail and damaging winds will be more of a concern.
Looking at a composite chart for tornado probabilities, I’m not eyeing a lot here to get that excited about except down around I-10 near the storm chasing hotbed of Ft. Stockton.
The spinny storms index does like that area as well, and it also like the area up near Lubbock.
The calibrated tornado probabilities also support this theory of a dual target.

Storms Going Everywhere, Early

At the time of this writing I’m seeing some weak storms already trying to go at 10:30 a.m. local time. This could be part of the main show, it’s going to be that kind of a day. Because storms may form early, this may not give time for those low clouds to completely burn off to the north. I think the obvious tornado target today for storm chasing is the I-10 and south area near Ft. Stockton.

Enhanced Threat Today

There is an enhanced risk both because the environment easily supports severe weather and also there will simply be an overwhelming number of storms. I’m expecting a lot of hail/wind reports today.

The tornado threat is more conditional and dependent on a dominant supercell maintaining clean inflow. This is possible further north near the Lubbock area to be sure, but I’m casually eyeing the area along/south of I-10 as the most likely place for a dominant/isolated supercell mode.

This Is It For A Bit

There will be storms around after today, but the ingredients fall off a cliff in terms of favorability for awhile, perhaps up to a week. Maybe more.

The Bottom Line

There are going to be a lot of storms today, with lots of crowding with northward extent into the Texas South Plains and Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds will be widespread and I suspect at least a couple of tornadoes are likely as well, especially down near I-10 today near Ft. Stockton.