It’s going to be a day where storms form all at once across a broad region characterized by an environment favorable for severe weather. But the instant initiation of storms along multiple boundaries will likely lead to clustered/linear storm modes which will limit what would otherwise be a favorable environment for a couple/few tornadoes.
Storms Going Everywhere, Early
At the time of this writing I’m seeing some weak storms already trying to go at 10:30 a.m. local time. This could be part of the main show, it’s going to be that kind of a day. Because storms may form early, this may not give time for those low clouds to completely burn off to the north. I think the obvious tornado target today for storm chasing is the I-10 and south area near Ft. Stockton.
Enhanced Threat Today
There is an enhanced risk both because the environment easily supports severe weather and also there will simply be an overwhelming number of storms. I’m expecting a lot of hail/wind reports today.
The tornado threat is more conditional and dependent on a dominant supercell maintaining clean inflow. This is possible further north near the Lubbock area to be sure, but I’m casually eyeing the area along/south of I-10 as the most likely place for a dominant/isolated supercell mode.
This Is It For A Bit
There will be storms around after today, but the ingredients fall off a cliff in terms of favorability for awhile, perhaps up to a week. Maybe more.
The Bottom Line
There are going to be a lot of storms today, with lots of crowding with northward extent into the Texas South Plains and Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds will be widespread and I suspect at least a couple of tornadoes are likely as well, especially down near I-10 today near Ft. Stockton.