Storms in northeast Texas that are moving east-southeast have fluctuated in intensity. The region ahead remains conducive for storm growth with strong buoyancy and 40-50 kts of effective shear, increasing the risk of large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts. The tornado threat seems lower-end across NE Texas. Current projections suggest these storms could affect northwest Louisiana and southeast Arkansas into the night.

Further north, severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across Arkansas and Missouri. The tornado risk is somewhat higher here vs. further south, but cooling surface temps and an increasingly linear storm mode should modulate the threat somewhat.