NOAA’s Spring Outlook shows better-than-average chances of increased precipitation across the Southern U.S. and then arcing back into the Southern and Central Plains. In most years, more precipitation than normal in these areas would tend to indicate a busier severe weather season as well.

Last week, the Climate Prediction Center released its April, May, and June Spring outlook—the outlook storm chasers pay the most attention to. This one brings the possibility of an interesting spring storm season.

But Yet: Even where drier than normal prognostication exists, severe weather chances will exist. Some severe weather events don’t produce a lot of rain.

The Bottom Line: This data point tends to point towards a much different season this year than the previous ones and fits within many analog years of busier storm seasons in the Spring months. But every year is different, and we’ll only truly know how this year turns out after it is over.