A potent upper storm system will shift east towards the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, creating the ingredients for a severe weather event in Eastern Arkansas, Louisiana, and Western Mississippi. While some details need to be ironed out, the possibility of tornadoes late Tuesday afternoon into the night is apparent.
This is pretty seasonal nowadays: Tornado threats across the south in November – February are not a new thing.
- But it does seem like an alarming type of pattern emerging once again on the front end of the cold season across the country.
- This time of year, the jet stream is more powerful which can set the stage for big tornado events because of stronger wind shear.
- Mid to upper 60 dewpoints will be drawn northwards, which will fuel the storms on Tuesday.
- Expect storms to form in the afternoon and strengthen into the night as the storm system’s energy ejects over the warm sector.
This is a nighttime event mostly: While storms will form prior to sunset, the environment looks to peak in intensity after sunset. This will make this event potentially really dangerous.
- The key for this event (and all like it honestly) will come down to storm mode. More isolated storms in this type of environment will be capable of tornadoes.
- The thing we will be watching over the next 48-60 hours will be what the storm mode does look to be, though initial signs do point to a more cellular/isolated mode versus linear early in the event.
- Nocturnal events this time of year are always more dangerous because people still don’t fully associate November with tornadoes — so it is especially important to spread the word about severe weather potential on Tuesday.
Tornado trouble: This event certainly looks like one where the ingredients won’t be as much in question. Whether this event is a major one or not will come down to storm mode. There are some signs of minor capping at 700mb which will probably aid in keeping storms isolated longer. As with the event earlier this month in NE Texas, a small cap on days with big ingredients actually tends to make the atmosphere more supportive of tornadoes.
- Details will change, so it is important to stay tuned to the latest forecasts. We’ll update this blog again on Tuesday morning with the latest thinking.
- Another way we’ll be updating on the event is on our Facebook and Instagram.