Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph are possible this afternoon/evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. There is a small risk of a supercell with large hail as well. However, ridging aloft along with a dry subcloud layer will likely mean most storms are shorter lived and outflow dominant, much more reminiscent of summer/monsoon outflow-driven storm events in the region.

Locations:

  • Primary Risk Area: Western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle

Threats:

  • Damaging Winds: 60-70 mph, particularly in western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle.
  • Hail: Isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) possible across the risk area.

Timing:

  • Storm Initiation: Mid to late afternoon
  • Peak Threat: Late afternoon into evening

Discussion:

TX Panhandle/Western OK:

  • Setup: A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening, following a midlevel low over the Upper Great Lakes. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southward low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front.
  • Storm Development: Strong surface heating and increasing low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and deep mixing. Low-level convergence and ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle.
  • Severe Potential: Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles (dry subcloud layer), and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter).

Additional Threats:

  • Eastern New York to the Carolinas: Isolated wind damage possible this afternoon.
  • Central/East-Central Florida: Isolated wind damage and hail possible.