A line of storms will progress through the Southeast today with damaging winds, hail, and a low tornado risk. These storms will also dump copious rainfall in areas that are under drought conditions, but it may be too much of a good thing.

Location

  • Eastern Texas
  • Louisiana
  • Mississippi
  • Alabama
  • Southeastern Oklahoma (limited threat)

Threats:

  • A couple of tornadoes
  • Large hail
  • Strong to severe wind gusts

Timing

  • Today into tonight

Discussion

  • Multiple Storm Episodes: Expect several rounds of thunderstorms. The greatest risk for well-organized storms lies in the area from east Texas and eastward.
  • Storm Types & Threats
    • A corridor of ongoing storms will move eastward, posing a risk for tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail.
    • Storms near the I-35 corridor in Texas could intensify as they move east, bringing a tornado and gust threat. These storms may merge with storms from the first area of activity.
    • A separate cluster of storms over Oklahoma and northern Texas could produce hail and isolated gusts before weakening this evening.

Flooding threat: There will be a risk of flash flooding with training storm cells today over the same area. A moderate risk has been issued by the WPC for this threat.

Important Note: While the overall severe threat may be somewhat limited due to messy storm organization, the tornado risk is not zero in the Slight Risk area.

A moderate risk of excessive rainfall today.
Casually interested in the low-topped storms across North and Central Texas today. Shear is weak in the low-levels but there will be lots of cape in the low-levels for tilting and stretching of vorticity.
A look at a sounding from that area shows 3CAPE over 100, 0-6km shear at 73kts, and the 4-6km SR Flow number at 31kt. It’s not the most robust setup you’ve ever seen, but a pre-existing boundary could make these storms briefly interesting.