It looks like Mother Nature has one more big event up its sleeve today across the central and southern plains. We are expecting supercells to form in the mid afternoon hours, and then they will grow into a massive line by the evening. Extremely large hail, very damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are likely.
Timing: Storms should form by mid-afternoon and will last through the overnight hours.
Location: Expect the greatest risk area for storms to run from Southwest Kansas into Western Oklahoma and south and east from there.
Threats: Very large hail, up to baseball or softball size, damaging winds of 80 mph or more, and a few tornadoes.
Discussion: This looks like a very busy day on the Central and Southern Plains, with an enhanced risk of tornadoes and a significant risk of damaging winds. Storms will initially form near the triple point around two or three this afternoon and then they will form further south along the dryline and ahead of the dryline into the late afternoon and early evening hours.
I am really impressed by today’s environment, there are many parameters that fit a big time severe weather day. Overall wind shear and instability fit what you’d expect for a lot of severe weather with an arriving shortwave trough.
On the flip side, I don’t think the low level wind shear is that extreme, but we should have several supercells. The odds are pretty high that at least some of those produce a tornado or two.
I think today goes in a pretty straight forward manner, storms will form in a zipper like pattern down the dryline in the afternoon hours, and then they will grow upscale into a line by evening. Before storms form into a line extremely large hail is possible, as well as a few tornadoes. When the line takes shape, the environment is highly supportive of a major damaging winds event with some wind gusts of over 80 mph possible. Additionally, there will be a tornado risk with the line this evening as well.
It is going to be an extremely busy day today. Be sure to keep a source of weather information handy throughout the afternoon and evening hours.