All the talk next week is on Monday. That make sense because the Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting portions of the Southern Plains for a significant severe weather risk. While we want to stress details can certainly change at this range, there is a lot of model agreement across suites and ensembles of an environment supportive of supercells with giant hail and strong tornadoes on Monday afternoon and evening.

The things we don’t know right now that will dramatically effect Monday’s risk:

  • The exact location of the dryline. This is the boundary storms will mostly form off of on Monday. Models have this anywhere from the eastern Texas Panhandle to West-Central Oklahoma.
  • Storm mode concerns? Any big event could be more linear than cellular. Linear events would lessen the risk of strong tornadoes.
  • Wave timing? Currently, models have the upper wave timed perfectly. But this far in advance, small changes will make a big difference. For the biggest days on the Plains, a wave ejecting in the mid-late afternoon is the perfect combo. Any changes to that would mean big differences on the overall threat on Monday.

We’ll be keeping an eye on it all.