Just a quick update today to say it looks like our severe weather risk this weekend is likely a go — we’re now getting some higher resolution data, and it seems a good bet a severe line of storms with possible embedded supercells will take shape through the day and into the night on Saturday.
There are no real signals for storms on Friday night/early Saturday across Eastern OK or Western Arkansas. If any could get going after dark, they would pose a hail risk.
For Saturday, the storm mode will largely determine the threats. I am willing to bet the damaging winds threat may end up enhanced, and the tornado threat will be there even if storm mode is linear. Soundings from the region show 0-6km shear vectors close to parallel to the crashing cold front, which is a very strong linear signal. I’m not fully sure we’ll see many storms ahead of the line. Overall, it looks like a very typical winter storm setup right now. We’re monitoring!