A few storms should begin forming today just before sunset across the E. Texas Panhandle into the Texas South Plains with more widespread storms overnight. Large hail is the biggest threat with storms but there is a very low risk of a tornado as well, though I think any tornado would be pretty fluky today. Storms will become more numerous overnight, with heavy rain likely in the Red River Valley and south into Texas. The severe weather threat should maximize from 7 p.m. to midnight.
The Big Picture
The big weather-maker is the storm system digging SE and emerging out on the Plains this evening and overnight. You can clearly see it over New Mexico in this model image.
Today’s risk from the SPC is a Slight Risk (2/5).
A current look at satellite (1:30 p.m. CT) shows clear skies with scattered cumulus with returning moisture.
Dewpoints are running about what we expected, with near-50 dewpoints expected to the Red River near sunset.
Most models are showing storms beginning to form just before sunset. Given the lower instability these will take some time to fully organize, which may mean the main show is all after dark.
A look at a forecast sounding from the HRRR for this time shows plenty of shear for storms to organize but low enough CAPE that it will likely take an hour or so for updrafts to fully mature.
Storms will strengthen just after sunset. The greatest severe weather risk will likely be from about 7 p.m. to midnight.
The environment well after dark still looks robust, but storms should gradually become based above the surface. This means that storms won’t be sucking in air from the surface layer, which will limit any tornado and damaging winds potential.
Storms will spread east and north and become more widespread overnight. The crowded storm modes mixed with lower instability will limit the overall severe weather threat as the night goes on — but heavy rain seems likely as storms form everywhere due to lots of lift from the incoming storm system moving overhead.
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