A multi-pronged cold season storm system will march east across the country, bringing severe weather chances from the Plains into the South and a whopper of a snowstorm to the Northern U.S. The severe weather threat will include a risk for tornadoes, especially on Tuesday in the South.
Tornadoes Possible After Dark Tonight: Expect storms to form well after sunset tonight, perhaps as late as 10-midnight in the eastern portions of the High Plains. These storms will quickly crowd up and go at least somewhat linear, but a threat for tornadoes will exist given the strong low-level wind shear.
- In addition to the tornado threat, damaging winds will be possible with the line as it moves east.
- Hail should not be a huge threat except perhaps early on as storms are initially cellular. Hail sizes shouldn’t be too big regardless.
- The environment features some really low cape but strong wind shear, which is very typical this time of year.
Threat of Strong Tornadoes Tomorrow: Strong tornadoes will become increasingly likely across the South tomorrow, from extreme East Texas into Louisiana and into Mississippi. A line of storms will exist along the advancing cold front through the day, but more storms could form just ahead of this band, especially later in the day.
- The wind shear is fairly strong tomorrow, so any isolated storms will pose the threat of strong tornadoes.
- It is possible no storms form ahead of the advancing cold front if thick clouds exist through the day. Even if so, a threat of tornadoes along the line will still exist.
- Watch for the degree of cloud breaks through the day tomorrow as one sign of whether isolated storms in the open warm sector are likely to organize into dangerous supercells.
- While the tornado threat will exist through the day, the environmental peak will likely occur near and just after dark.
- Damaging winds will be possible with any storms along the cold front, and large hail will certainly be possible with cellular storms ahead of the line.
Travel Nightmare: As the low pressure moves north and east and deepens, a big winter storm will take shape on the north and west side of the advancing system. Expect major travel problems across the Central and Northern Plains into likely midweek.
- 8-12 inches of snow is likely, especially across western Nebraska into the Dakotas.
- Some local areas will certainly see more than a foot in that region.
As always, we’ll have much more on this system on our social media channels through the next two days.