On their latest mid-range outlook, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a severe weather risk area for portions of the Southern U.S. This would cover Saturday across Arkansas down into far East Texas.

The questions for this event are many at this range, but it does look like a lot of upper energy will overspread a moist airmass by late week. This time of year that usually spells at least *some* severe weather risk. An early glance at models shows strong shear, which you would expect for December. However, there does appear to be some capping in place at this range. This is more than a few days out, so we’re not going to get too fired up about anything just yet — but I would plan on at least a small severe weather risk for the Southern U.S. starting late week and lasting into the weekend.