It’s going to be…well it’s going to be a week on the Central and Southern Plains into the South and all the way back into the Southwest. Expect severe weather chances to ramp up on Wednesday, with snow possible through the workweek and rain also likely for many. There’s so much to dissect so let’s do it day-by-day.
Tuesday will feature our first storm system of the week. Gulf moisture will stream northwards and will interact with the lift from this incoming system to generate widespread precipitation.
- At the present time, instability looks to be limited with this system, so expect only a few rumbles of thunder amidst the heavy rain.
- Snow will be possible with this initial system, but atmospheric temperatures are pretty warm. Thus, expect only the highest elevations across New Mexico and Colorado to see a lot of snow.
And thus, we arrive at Wednesday. This is a day that will feature several weather stories at once. There will certainly be a severe weather risk over the Southern Plains and into the South — but could we see winter rampaging across the region as well? Let’s take a look.
- The first thing you’ll notice when you wake up Wednesday morning (at least for most people) is a cool and crisp airmass with strong southerly winds.
- A storm system will be approaching from the west, drawing the warm/moist airmass north.
- This is a much colder system so on the north and west side of our eventual storm system track, a widespread snow event will almost certainly occur.
Convergence increases on a dryline usually in response to what is happening aloft. It’s all part of the same system. The middle frame and right frame above shows the evolution of the dryline from 21z to 0z on Wednesday on the Euro.
- The dryline is diffuse because the upper-air forcing is still a bit west at 21z. It sharpens up by 0z in response to the upper wave, but that is also sunset when the atmosphere will be rapidly cooling.
- Because of this, storms don’t want to get going too widespread until after dark on most all models. Some models are even less bullish on moisture return, as the NBM shows the 60 isoderm well south of both the GFS and Euro’s location.
- The chances of a storm going up on the dryline in the late afternoon in Wednesday right now cannot be ruled out — but it is probably pretty unlikely.
- Any storms that form after dark will have the capability of producing large hail and tornadoes. Damaging winds will also be possible, especially with a possible linear complex along a quickly advancing front.
- The threat should persist into Thursday across the South.
Snow, Snow, Snow
The snow forecast for this system seems relatively straightforward. Take the path of the upper low and anywhere on the north and west half of that track will see snow.
- 3-6” or possibly even higher local amounts are likely in a very broad swath.
- Many of the areas that will see snow are in an exceptional drought situation, this is incredible news for these areas.
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