Severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas down to the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. Drier low-levels mixed with weaker wind shear will make the primary threats damaging winds and perhaps some marginally severe hail.

Locations:

  • Enhanced Risk Area: Northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and northern Illinois.
  • Plains Risk Area: Kansas down into the Texas Panhandle

Threats:

  • Very Large Hail: Expected with initial supercells in the enhanced risk zone.
  • Destructive Wind Gusts: Likely, especially with any bowing segments. Highest chances are in KS to TX.
  • Tornadoes: A couple are possible, particularly with discrete supercells in the enhanced zone.

Timing:

  • Storm Initiation: Likely late afternoon or early evening.
  • Peak Threat: Late afternoon to early evening.
  • Storm Weakening: Overnight.

Discussion:

Middle MS Valley:

  • Setup: A surface cold front will extend southwestward across southern IA into northeast KS by mid-afternoon. Strong daytime heating and a corridor of mid-upper 60s dewpoints will result in large MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg and steep low/mid-level lapse rates.
  • Storm Development: Convective initiation along the front may be delayed until late afternoon or early evening due to warm temperatures in the 800-700 mb layer. Discrete supercells are expected to form along the front, tracking east-southeastward across the enhanced risk area.
  • Severe Potential: Very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. Upscale organization into one or more bowing structures is expected this evening, increasing the risk of damaging winds.

Western KS to TX Panhandle:

  • Setup: A hot and deeply mixed boundary layer will develop from the northeast TX Panhandle into western KS, with temperatures over 100°F.
  • Storm Development: Most CAM solutions suggest scattered coverage of high-based thunderstorms in this region during the evening.
  • Severe Potential: Inverted-V profiles and sufficient winds aloft will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts for a few hours.