It looks as if we will be due a severe weather setup for November after all out of this upcoming system, but the threat seems to be almost completely large hail on Sunday.
On Sunday, an upper trough will emerge onto the Plains, with lots of upper lift in tow. However, strong moisture advection through the day, high clouds, and on-and-off precipitation should limit the overall surface heating. Forecast soundings for portions of Oklahoma show a cool surface layer with an unstable elevated layer aloft. MUCAPEs of over 1000 and solid shear values will lead to the possibility of elevated storms with a large hail threat on Sunday.
The caveats at this time are storm coverage (elevated events are notoriously hard to figure out even this far in advance) — and whether we can genuinely get the moisture models showing back north.
We’ll keep an eye on this one and post updates this weekend.