We won’t always post forecast discussions for elevated hailers — but today we’re doing it because it is January and this is the first severe weather threat of the year on the Plains.
Location: A slight risk across the Red River Valley with a marginal risk surrounding that in OK/TX.
Timing: Evening into the overnight.
Threats: Mainly a large hail threat, but some damaging winds and a non-zero tornado risk are also present.
Discussion: Mainly elevated (storms rooted above the surface) will form towards sunset across the Red River Valley and in West Texas. Storms that do form will move quickly north and east posing a large hail threat. The severe weather threat is roughly centered on the Red River in North Texas and SE Oklahoma. Near-surface-based storms could root during the overnight on the southernmost ends of storm development. We’ll have to keep an eye on that potential.
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