Today might be the most robust severe weather threat of the week, with a supercell or two possible somewhere from central Oklahoma back south and west into western north Texas.

Modest west-northwest 500mb flow will overspread the region, with a slight risk in place in a rough OKC-DFW and west region.
At the surface, mid and upper 50 dewpoints will exist along a dryline, with low to mid 60s into the warm sector further east.
A WSW low-level jet that is pretty modest overall will exist across the region.
We should have weak to moderate CAPE as a result of the upper-energy overhead and the moist lower atmosphere today.
Storm coverage will be greater to the north and east, with more crowding possible. Further SW storms may be more isolated but also more robust.
The infamous ‘Spinny Storms Index’ shows potential for a supercell or two throughout the risk area today.

The Bottom Line

Today is a day where very large hail is going to be the main story with severe storms. In fact, I suspect we will see a few reports of two-inch or greater size hail. Damaging winds are also possible, especially further northeast where more storms will likely congeal cold pools and crowd up more.

The tornado risk is very low today. I don’t think you can rule a tornado out, especially with a robust/dominant supercell somewhere in the Red River Valley into this evening. But I also don’t think it is something you necessarily should expect.