Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail and wind are possible.

Locations:

  • Risk Areas: Parts of GA/SC, the northern Plains, and the southern Plains.

Threats:

  • Large Hail: Potential in all risk areas, especially in the northern Plains and southern Plains.
  • Severe Wind Gusts: Possible in all slight risk areas, with significant gusts in the northern and southern Plains.
  • Very Low Tornado Risk: Possible in the northern Plains.

Timing:

  • Storm Initiation: Early afternoon in the Southeast, late afternoon in the northern and southern Plains.
  • Peak Threat: Late afternoon to early evening.
  • Storm Weakening: Evening into nighttime.

Discussion:

GA/SC:

  • Setup: A surface cold front is slowly moving southward across central GA and far southern SC. A moist low-level airmass and substantial daytime heating will lead to moderate CAPE by early afternoon.
  • Storm Development: Scattered thunderstorms will form along or just behind the front, moving eastward and offshore by early evening.
  • Severe Potential: Fast westerly flow aloft will promote a few organized/supercell storms capable of damaging winds and hail.

WY/NE/Dakotas:

  • Setup: A well-defined shortwave trough over western MT will track eastward, establishing a surface boundary from western ND into eastern WY.
  • Storm Development: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form along this boundary in a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment.
  • Severe Potential: Steep mid-level lapse rates, veering low-level wind fields, and strong effective shear will support supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is possible. Isolated but intense cells may form in the deeply mixed boundary layer farther west across northern WY.

West TX:

  • Setup: A slow-moving southern stream shortwave trough over southern NM will bring strengthening westerly mid-level winds across parts of west TX.
  • Storm Development: Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a southeastward moving surface front over eastern NM by mid-afternoon and track across west TX through the evening.
  • Severe Potential: Steep low and mid-level lapse rates coupled with strong winds aloft will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells.