A dryline setup on the Southern Great Plains in late February is not unheard of, I wouldn’t even say it is uncommon. In the coming decades, this will probably be relatively expected (more on that in our video tomorrow!).
A compact but powerful storm system looks to emerge over the Great Plains on Sunday (2/26/23) with an attendant risk of severe weather. Let’s dive in and look at some broad details.
There are subtle differences in the GFS and Euro at this range, but the broad-scale “there is a powerful compact trough” story is the same across both models.
The Euro has a more powerful look to the trough in a lot of ways, but either solution will result in fast moving storms (45mph+). I pulled a couple of sample soundings on the dryline with the Euro that had storm motions at a ridiculous 70mph!
(I doubt any eventual storms were to move that fast).
In lieu of showing graphics from multiple models throughout the rest of this blog, we’re going to run with the Euro the rest of the way (there are a lot of similarities right now).
The Bottom Line
While there is a lot of agreement on broad details by models, it is in the finer points that events are made or unmade. It’s a good idea to start preparations for severe weather season thought. Think about things like get your batteries changed in your weather radio, review your safety plan, etc.
We’ll have at least one more blog post on this event before Sunday, so stay tuned!