We’re set to see our first small round of showers and even a rumble of thunder or two today across the Southern Plains — but the heavier event looks to be on Saturday as the primary upper system approaches from the west. There is some indication we could see a marginal risk of strong to even severe storms this weekend, with hail and damaging winds the primary threat. As some models are showing, that will be contingent on getting ample instability in place.

The WPC rainfall map hasn’t changed much in prior days overall, which is leading to high confidence that pretty heavy rain will impact parts of the region this week. We will keep an eye on the severe weather potential for Saturday. I’m not sold on it, but I feel strongly enough about it to have mentioned it here. We’ll see.