Yesterday Was A Giant Forecast Bust ❌

Let's talk about how the experts got it wrong yesterday.

The lack of soundings in the area has always haunted me when I chase in Central Or South Texas (Upper-left graphic). Yesterday is a prime example of how, if you read between the lines, the capping that showed up on 18z Corpus Christi sounding was evident in Northern Mexico a few hours prior. 

Yesterday’s forecast bust was one of the biggest of the year.

This, along with thick low clouds limiting mixing, did yesterday in before it even had a chance. There were 0 preliminary storm reports yesterday despite the day beginning as an enhanced risk. It is always important to look at why setups don’t take off after the fact, as it is essential to look at setups that do.

In the bottom-left graphic, you can see the substantial capping layer present in NE Mexico on the 12z sounding. If you checked on mesoanalysis, this was also present inland across Texas. But Corpus Christi’s 12z sounding near the coast had little to no capping in the morning. (Bottom Center)