Will this season be a quick starter?

Taking a look at models and conditions to make a guess!

Severe weather season typically follows a loosely standard format. Each season starts in the southeastern states in late January to February then they slowly migrate north and west onto the Plains by spring and into the Midwest and Canada by summer.

Is this season looking any different? Let’s dive in.

The Drought

As we touched on in our early clues about storm season newsletter, the drought is strong and becoming more widespread with time. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts the drought to maintain and expand through February on the Plains, but drought removal may take place across portions of the southeast back into Texas.

We don’t typically look for severe weather setups in February for the Plains, so the drought expanding is not a surprise. To get some drought removal in the Southeast does mean forecasters are eyeing a more active storm pattern which will inevitably mean severe weather setups given the time of year.

What Are Models Saying?

Weather models have some real limitations f…