⚠ Significant Threat of Hail Today N TX/S OK
This might be the annual 'huge hail' day that happens in this area each year it seems.
We’re racing off to a hot start on the Southern Plains for severe weather season with yet another threat of severe storms and tornadoes today. There will be notable rounds/modes of storms: more isolated supercells with very large hail potential this afternoon and then a growing line complex into the night.
Storms will form pretty early today. Let’s jump in so they don’t beat me to publish time.
Environmental Evolution
Today will be much more classic early Spring than Sunday was. There is low to moderate instability with adequate wind shear for supercells. Initially the low-level hodographs aren’t terribly large, but the overall length of the hodograph with the lack of low-level turning tends to point to very large hail as a big threat with the initial supercells this afternoon.
The atmospehre will be ready for severe weather, most especially large hail, during the afternoon hours.
Hail sizes are going to be huge on a storm or two, tennis-ball+ hail is likely.
Tornado threat is not zero at any point today, but it rises through the afternoon and maximizes just after dark.
There will be tornado warnings today and likely at least a tornado or two (but probably several). This is a day to stay weather aware.
See our full detailed forecast blog on our website.
The Bottom Line
Isolated storms will form in the next couple of hours and we’ll then have severe storms across the region through the rest of the day. Tornadoes are less likely in the afternoon but there is enough for a couple even still, especially in dominant storms. As the day wars on and storms grow upscale with increasing low-level wind shear, the tornado threat should ramp up and maximize just after dark along a line.
It’s another day to be weather aware, keep a source of weather warnings close by until the line passes you tonight.