Quieter But Not Quiet Week Ahead

But the next week? 👀

While we won’t be without severe weather this week, we’re going to be quieter in a relative sense compared to what is coming. Most models are in agreement of a ‘Prime Time on the Plains’ pattern the week of June 10 -17 or so. But this week? Modest flow will keep the risks on the lower-end of the spectrum.

Pattern Evolution This Week

A lot of this upcoming week will be a week in transition from our highly amplified blocking pattern to a deep western U.S. trough encroaching on the middle of the country. This is a key moment for the atmosphere to set up what might be an epic pattern next week.

On Tuesday a cut off low will be coming onshore on the California coast with solid but not overwhelming flow ahead of it. The flow may make its way over the higher terrain in some areas of New Mexico and West Texas. This would bring just enough shear for a supercell off of the high terrain.