October: Fall? Summer? Spring? Something else?

At least models do agree about the first 1/2 of the month.

October is typically the season of pumpkin spice, spooky movies, and a chill in the air finally arriving for most of us.

But the first 1/2 of the month won’t be like that at all for the most part.

A large ridge of high pressure will be centered over the four corners region, shunting the jet stream way north this week. This will lead to warm to even hot temperatures with dry conditions expected across most of the Plains and SW.

The overall pattern for the first half of the month looks to be dominated by a large western U.S. ridge. A glance at the ensembles shows this pretty clearly:

The European ensemble shows strong indications of positive heights (aka more high pressure ridging) across the Western United States. This looks straight out of summer.

Temperatures across the middle of the country will be averaging 10+ degrees above normal to start October, with only some modest hope of a cold front after this next weekend. But with little moisture, it will likely be dry. The only chance of somewhat active/not-quiet weather is in the tropics.

There is a moderate chance of tropical development this week in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico with a disturbance now located off of Central America.

We will have to watch the potential for another tropical cyclone so close on the heels of Helene. I’m not sure if this one will amount to much, as models aren’t that fired up about it just yet, but it’s always something that should perk up your ears this time of year. We’ll be watching it and updating on our social profiles to be sure.

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Photo of the Week

You’ll see this shot in our newest members video on our YouTube channel. Beautiful fall colors in the Santa Fe National Forest, New Mexico. It’s peak season for the Aspens, and you can catch their signature glow at high altitudes in the Western U.S.

Send your own weather photos in to us for a chance to be featured in this space: admin@tornadotitans.com