Northern Plains Light Up, Southern Not Done
While the jet stream is mostly firmly parked up north, it’ll still be broad enough for severe storms further south.
You have no doubt, if you’ve been on social media, seen the variety of posts about the ‘big severe weather risks’ for the Northern Plains.
But the threat is broader than that…
An enhanced threat of hail and wind exists for the Southern/Central Plains today as well. And it’s the pattern driving the risks we’ve been seeing:
Broad SW flow aloft exists from border to border in the country. This flow, when it overlaps moist and unstable air, sets the stage for severe weather more often than not. While surface temps remain hot and moisture more limited. There’s still enough of everything to provide an atmosphere favorable for severe storms with hail and damaging winds as the primary threats through the rest of this week.
However, as we look ahead into this weekend this flow begins to weaken and turn out of the Northwest. While this isn’t necessarily a storm pattern ender in June, it still tends to limit the overall tornado chances comparatively. Thus, while storm chances will likely continue, we’ll see the chances remain rather modest throughout the period for anything but damaging winds and hail. I could see at least one additional MCS event through this period though, which is right on schedule per the calendar.
By early next week, strong northwest flow will dive south over the Plains and crash a cold front all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. That’ll limit overall storm chances for a couple of days into early next week.
By late next week moisture should recover though, with an expansive dryline from Nebraska to Texas. June isn’t quiet at all in terms of severe weather, just it isn’t a prolific tornado producer…yet.
Overall Threats
Overall, I think the highest threats (outside of the Northern Plains) will remain scattered wind and hail. Last night, we saw 100mph winds at Salina, KS, so that’s not a risk to sleep on. But the tornado risks will remain lower end.
To my eye, there are a few solid chances for severe weather coming up through the rest of this week to continue yesterday’s theme, with the highest tornado chances coming on Friday or Saturday in the Central/Southern Plains. We’ll be out chasing for sure. Hope to see you on our live stream on YouTube!