Early clues about tornado season?

We’re starting to see some hints as to what Spring might bring.

Ok before we get too far into this post I just want to acknowledge the realness that everything I’m about to tell you is probably a lie but I’m going to tell it to you anyways.

Seasonal forecasts are hard enough, much less anticipating small-scale phenomena within those seasons like tornadoes. We can see clues and make connections based on past experience, but in this business there are exceptions to literally everything. So I want to convey that type of extreme uncertainty up front before we dive in! Are you in the right frame of mind? Ok! Let’s go for it.

Drought!

The first thing I want to take note of at this point in the winter is the expansive and rapidly expanding, strong drought conditions across the western U.S. into the Plains.

Droughts develop because there is less precipitation than normal — which is another way of saying the storm pattern is really, really quiet. Droughts can and do break all the time because the pattern changes, but they also can persist for months. Current…