We haven’t wanted to write too much on the extended outlook because (lordy) we can’t even trust models to get important details right within a few days of setups. But, I do want to stress that models do a lot better job in predicting when you zoom further out.

In this case, ensemble models are all pointing towards our next big weather maker coming in sometime towards the end of next week or into the weekend. There is strong agreement across model suites and solutions that a pattern that favors severe weather this time of year (western U.S. trough) will be established by late month. This has been consistent for a really long time now, and honestly, you could see this pattern setting up into May back in the Winter. 

All you can say at this point is a very simple thing: storm season is nowhere close to finished, and perhaps, it has not even really gotten started.

We’ll provide updates on this in the meantime, but only in between breaks from growing our gardens and enjoying spring activities we don’t normally get to do!