We just hit the 48-hour window for Monday’s event, which means we have a treasure trove of data to work through. Here is where things stand:

  • Almost every model does not form storms until sunset on Monday, some much later than that. This is due to the delayed wave timing we’ve talked about a couple of times, as well as a stronger cap than forecast prior, both working in tandem.
  • The system coming out is very powerful and there will almost certainly be severe weather on Monday even still.
  • The higher-end Monday scenarios that social media was buzzing about earlier this week do not look that likely at this time. Giant hail and a couple of tornadoes are still very possible, though.
  • Data can change (honestly, it already has). Some of the things that we’ve seen as trends towards a lower-key event have continued for a few days, and that usually means a system is being better sampled, which means the data is more accurate. 

We’re still monitoring it all for a possible chase, but recent trends suggest that the hype around this day is likely to dramatically lower.