We’re now less than 60 hours away from Monday’s potential severe weather event. Here are some quick notes on where things stand:

  • The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk for Monday. This is a good and solid risk outline at this point that runs from Kansas to Texas. Right now the biggest threats inside the enhanced risk are giant hail and a few tornadoes. 
  • This risk could see upgrades as future data comes in. Right now, a lot of models have been holding off on robust storm formation until evening — but if we see more signs of storms forming in the afternoon I would bet on a Moderate (4/5) upgrade for Monday.
  • We’ve been talking about it a lot, but the wave timing continues to trend to the sunset and after hours on models. This could lead to much later storm initiation which would lessen the overall tornado threat, but not diminish it entirely. However, as the system comes ashore I think we’ll see many models move up storm formation into the afternoon hours.
  • Cap strength is another concern to keep an eye on, but I think it’s the type of cap that limits the number of storm updrafts that can mature but not eliminate the possibility of storm formation altogether. 
  • Overall the environment still looks quite potent. This is an environment that is conditionally supportive of giant hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds. But there are questions we’ll need to answer in the coming days.

The bottom line: We’re still on for a busy day on Monday. But the details are going to matter and we’ll start filling those in over the next 24 hours.