Both the SREF and the HREF, two short-term ensemble models that combine multiple weather models into one output, are trending towards few to no storms before sunset tomorrow. This isn’t that surprising, but it is notable how stingy every model is with storm coverage in the daylight hours tomorrow.

There’s a marked trend for storms to fire towards sunset and just after along and north of a warm frontal zone in N. Kansas and S. Nebraska. If those materialize, a severe weather threat with large hail would likely take shape. We’ll have a full forecast out tomorrow!