A ridge of high pressure is shifting east through the week, which is going to bring extremely hot temperatures from New England down into the Southern Plains. This ridge will also help the jet stream shift north and tilt. However, a cold front midway through the week may limit severe weather chances to the hotter and drier airmass further south for the first 1/2 of the week.

Sfctmax_024h imp.conus 3.

Dangerous Heat: Don’t laugh at the folks in the northeast too much, because they’re facing down heat indexes over 100F.  Some of these areas don’t have air conditioning the same way folks in the southern parts of the country do, so it will be downright miserable.

Sfctd_b imp.conus 9.

’Cold” front moves south: While temperatures won’t be that cold behind the front, the airmass will be quite dry. This will shut off severe weather chances for much of the northern 1/2 of the country after Monday for a couple of days. There will be risks further south in the hotter and drier airmass on the C/S Plains. The tornado risk should be minimal, but damaging winds/hail will be possible.

500wh.conus 18.

Late Week Severe Threats: There should be at least some severe weather risks in the northern 1/2 of the Plains late this week. I would expect a tornado risk or two to come out of this pattern as well.

Sfctd_b imp.conus 10.

Monsoon Pattern Emerging: Today is the official start of monsoon season in the Desert SW, and this next week will provide a surge of moisture towards the latter parts of the week/weekend to start up a burst of activity.