Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, eastern Oklahoma, and north-central/central Texas today. Primary threats include severe wind gusts, large hail, and a low tornado chance.

Locations:

  • Primary Risk Area: Eastern Iowa and northern Illinois (morning), Eastern Oklahoma and north-central/central Texas (afternoon to evening)
  • Secondary Risk Area: Central Texas

Threats:

  • Severe Wind Gusts: Especially across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois this morning, and potentially in eastern Oklahoma and Texas this evening.
  • Large Hail: Expected mainly this afternoon and evening from eastern Oklahoma to north-central Texas, with some hailstones possibly exceeding 3 inches in diameter.
  • Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible, particularly with robust supercell storms.

Timing:

  • Morning: Enhanced severe wind threat in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.
  • Afternoon to Evening: Significant hail threat and potential for severe wind gusts in eastern Oklahoma and north-central/central Texas.

Meteorological Discussion:

  • Southern Plains to Mid-South:
    • Setup: A front extending across the region will interact with a dryline and remnant outflow boundaries from previous thunderstorms.
    • Conditions: Strong surface heating, abundant moisture, steep lapse rates, and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support rapid storm development.
    • Storm Development: Scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, are expected to develop near the front this afternoon. Dryline storm-initiation potential is more conditional and isolated.
    • Threats: Large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. The greatest hail threat is from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas, with hailstones exceeding 3 inches possible.
    • Evolution: Storms may merge into clusters, maintaining a damaging wind threat into the late evening before weakening.
  • Midwest:
    • Morning Activity: An ongoing complex of thunderstorms in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois poses an enhanced severe wind threat, with potential for brief tornadoes.
    • Cold Pool Influence: A well-developed cold pool and rear-inflow jet support continued severe potential as this complex moves into Illinois and southern Wisconsin.
    • Afternoon Uncertainty: Airmass recovery behind the morning complex is uncertain. Additional severe development is possible along and ahead of the cold front, but confidence is lower due to the residual impacts of the earlier storms.