This week is going to be…well.
As a storm chaser I feel like it is going to be…hmmm.
Simply put, it will be May. There will be storms to chase. But the ingredients over the week are lower end or storm coverage may be very low. In short: if you aren’t a storm chaser purposefully looking for storms it may feel kind of quiet, unless you find yourself near or under these storms that is.
Not much to report on Monday. Limited moisture and wind shear will be in place. Some CAMs are trying to develop storms off the Raton Mesa in New Mexico — but even if they do take shape there’s not much to organize them.
Things pick up a bit on Tuesday with more moisture and a bit more wind shear. Things will be on the marginal side, but a supercell or two will be possible across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle with large hail/damaging wind gusts the primary threat.
Wednesday is a continuation of Tuesday but with even more ingredients. The other change from Tuesday is that it looks like storm coverage will be less. However, per-storm storm chase quality will likely be higher.
I’m currently eyeing SE New Mexico for the best chances of a couple of supercells.
The ‘main event’ this week on the Southern Plains is Thursday. A shortwave should move over the area with plentiful moisture to set the stage for severe weather. There will be at least a low tornado chance.
Friday Into The Weekend
I think the severe weather chances apparent on Thursday continue into the weekend. The thing I am noticing is low-level flow (particularly at 850mb) remains pretty weak. So I think the overall tornado risks will be lower end regardless of the rest of the atmosphere.
Beyond this Week
I think next week will feature severe weather chances associated with some broad SW flow. The GFS this morning actually has a big risk day on it for next week, but that’s the first time I’ve seen that really pronounced type of setup for next week on an operational model. The GFS has trended to the European this morning for week 2 though, which would mean some more enhanced risks into Mid-May.