As the pattern turns, so we turn with it!

It looks like there are a series of Marginal risks late this week for the Plains. The low-levels will be pretty dry, so the main threats with any cells should be damaging winds. Hail is also a possibility in the stronger cells.

Severe weather threat today.

Severe weather risk area outlined for tomorrow (9/15).

The SPC risk area for Friday (9/16).

The Pattern Evolution In The Next Two Weeks

Overall, looking at the jet stream pattern these next two weeks, the pattern should progress in a couple of stages:

  1. The current batch of W/SW flow fueling severe weather chances will be displaced north and west by a building ridge of high pressure over the Plains (sorry, summer isn’t quite done with us yet).

  2. That high will amplify and shift west, bringing a drier NW flow over the Plains, limiting our precipitation chances generally. There is a slight chance a cold front could fuel storms over the Plains in about 10 days…but most models don’t show this just yet.

Given that September is historically one of the rainiest months of the year on the Plains, this is not great news for the drought which was minimized severely over the summer. With a triple dip La Niña on the menu, we could see extreme/exceptional drought conditions return to big parts of the Plains over the winter.

The long-term trends of June and September both being hotter and drier is bad news for the Central and Southern Plains overall.

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