It looks like our string of severe weather threats may get going on Tuesday. Parts of the Southern Plains may experience marginally severe thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening, with potential for strong wind gusts and hail.

Locations:

  • Southern Plains: Specifically northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.

Threats:

  • Wind Gusts and Hail: Isolated severe threats with the capability of producing strong wind gusts and hail in the forecast area.

Timing:

  • Southern Plains: Throughout Tuesday, with a focus on the afternoon and evening as temperatures rise and instability increases.

Discussion:

  • Weather Patterns: An upper-level ridge will build into the Rockies, influencing weather across the Southern Plains.
  • Atmospheric Conditions:
    • Instability: Forecast shows a pocket of instability with MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40 knots.
    • Lapse Rates: Notably steep at 700-500 MB, above 8 C/km, supporting severe storm potential.
  • Surface Observations:
    • Frontal Activity: A slow-moving front extending from northwest Texas across Oklahoma to the Ozarks.
    • Moisture and Temperature: Surface dewpoints near 60°F with rising daytime temperatures.
  • Impact: The presence of a shallow capping inversion around 750 MB could limit convective initiation, rendering the severe threat conditional and likely very isolated.