A marginal risk extends along a frontal zone and dryline today from the eastern Texas Panhandle into Western/Northern Oklahoma. Storms should form this afternoon, with a weak/brief tornado threat initially followed by hail and damaging winds into the evening. We’re watching this setup for the very low tornado threat and possibility of photogenic storms near sunset with amazing lightning bolts out of the tall storm bases.

Locations

  • Western Oklahoma
  • Northwest Texas
  • Texas Coastal Plain

Threats

  • Isolated marginally severe hail
  • Strong wind gusts
  • Low tornado threat (mainly focused in northwest OK, weak/brief)

Timing

  • Western Oklahoma/Northwest Texas: This afternoon through this evening.
  • Texas Coast: Late tonight into early Thursday morning.

Discussion

  • Western Oklahoma/Northwest Texas:
    • A shortwave trough and low-pressure system will trigger limited storm development.
    • While moisture will be sparse, steep lapse rates (changing temperatures with height) could support a few storms capable of marginal hail and strong gusts.
  • Texas Coast
    • Returning moisture and warm air advection over a stalled front could lead to elevated thunderstorms late tonight.
    • Sufficient instability and wind shear provide a limited window for isolated hail before storms weaken.