A Marginal Risk exists for severe thunderstorms in the following areas:

  • Late Wednesday afternoon/evening: Texas Panhandle and adjacent Western Oklahoma.
  • Wednesday night: Near and south of the Texas Hill Country into the middle Texas coastal plain.

Threats:

  • Potential for some severe hail
  • Locally strong wind gusts

Timing

  • Texas Panhandle & Western Oklahoma: Late Wednesday afternoon through evening.
  • Southern Texas: Late Wednesday night, potentially lingering into early Thursday morning.

Discussion

  • Weather Systems: The severe weather potential is tied to several shortwave disturbances traversing a split-flow upper-level pattern.
    • Texas Panhandle/Western Oklahoma:
      • Afternoon heating could fuel isolated strong storms as a cold upper-level system moves in. While winds won’t be overly strong, hail and some strong gusts are possible.
    • Southern Texas:
      • A warm, elevated airmass will likely inhibit storms for much of the day. If enough moisture returns by late Wednesday night, some strong storms could develop due to favorable wind shear. Large hail and strong wind gusts would be the main threats.

Uncertainties

  • Surface Conditions: The extent of moisture return is a limiting factor for both areas, especially for Southern Texas.
  • Storm Initiation: Forecast models have differing opinions on the timing and placement of storm-triggering disturbances.