A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms exists today into early tonight from far Southern Oklahoma to Southeast Texas. The primary threats are large hail and strong wind gusts.

Location

  • Southeast Texas
  • Far Southern Oklahoma
  • Potential for limited impacts in southwest Louisiana

Threats

  • Isolated large hail (1-2 inches in diameter)
  • Strong wind gusts (up to 60 mph)

Timing

  • Today into early tonight

Discussion

  • Evolving Weather Systems:
    • Elevated thunderstorms are already active near the Texas coast this morning. These storms could produce some hail and strong gusts before evolving into a cluster and moving offshore.
    • A mid-level shortwave trough over western Texas will move east, accompanied by a weak surface trough. This will trigger new storm development in central Texas.
  • Storm Types & Threats:
    • Steeper lapse rates and favorable wind shear support a mix of storm clusters and some supercells.
    • The main threats from these storms are isolated incidents of large hail and strong outflow winds.
  • Storm Movement: Expect storms to spread east-southeastward across central Texas this evening and into southeast Texas (and potentially even southwest Louisiana) tonight.
  • Tornado Risk? There is only a very low risk of a tornado today. Conditions really aren’t all that favorable for their formation.
  • Ongoing Rain: There is a large area of ongoing rain in Oklahoma, which will help stabilize the atmosphere today in much of that region.