A risk of severe storms seems apparent tomorrow across Oklahoma and Texas (mainly the eastern half). Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with storms that may be ongoing as already as the morning, but a low tornado threat is also apparent.

What we’re watching: There are several aspects to tomorrow’s setup that are worth noting.

  • First, dewpoints are pretty marginal once again with just-in-time momisture return. This always affects the potential for dryline initiation in that it makes it a little harder for the atmosphere to go without substantial upper lift.
  • It looks like storms will form pretty early in the day across NE Texas and SE Oklahoma. SImply put the atmosphere won’t be ready for prime time at this time if that occurs.
  • Wind shear is actually rather meager until just before sunset when it looks like winds back strongly in response to the increasing upper energy. 
  • Thus, the tornado risk is likely to maximize around sunset with any supercells that haven’t been completely ingested into the line. This is most likely along the Red River in SE Oklahoma and NE Texas.
  • Huge hail is possible with any isolated supercells, especially early in their life-cycle when the low-level hodographs are smaller but instability is higher. This threat definitely includes the DFW metroplex if storms can fire that far south.

The bottom line: This is a day where I don’t think you’ll see a lot of tornado reports, but I could see a couple/few for sure. The bigger threat and probable news story would be a supercell placing itself in a perfect spot to drop huge hail in a populated area. We’re watching!